After 35 years in the business, even slow old pokes like myself tend to get a feel for markets and it always amazes me how the media sees things and the very different way that I see things. My clients get monthly newsletters that are more optimistic than anything in the media and it’s not just wishful thinking on my part.
The latest fear is that the world will come to an end for mortgage holders because rates are going up. Well, I disagree.
1. Rates do not go up five per cent at a time, they usually move at a quarter or half per cent.
2. If this should happen, all people need do is go out and get an early renewal and lock in for five years, long enough for a disaster to pass.
3. If rates did go up from 3½ to 5½ per cent, I do not think that would be tragic or stop demand, though it might ease prices slightly.
The Bank of Canada hints at rising rates. Ha! They stated rates would rise in June 2010 – it never happened. Mr. Obama in the U.S. has said rates will not go up before 2014. Canadian rates are unlikely to go up before U.S. rates do.
Canadians are very conservative and most have reasonably healthy down payments. They don’t like paying CMHC fees. They are also conservative with their budgets.
Apparently the condo market is flooded with Asian speculative buyers. Where these stats come from I have no idea. Do they fill out forms saying, “I am a spec?” Today’s condos are pre-sold and mainly to buyer users.
Pre-inheritance money is more evident every day and is never mentioned. A client of mine just gave his two kids $60,000 apiece. The most I have seen given is half a million to each of two children. There will be significant inherited wealth coming on board as more seniors pass away. They may be taking longer to die but believe me they will.
There are more bubbles in my bath than in the real estate market.
Re/Max Hallmark Realty